Case study atlas
Multi-hazard risk assessment for the transport sector in Niue
Assessing current and future natural-hazard risks across Niue’s roads, airport and wharf to guide long-term investment.
The challenge
Niue is one of the largest coral atolls in the world, home to a population of around 1,600 people. Its transport network including roads, airport and wharf, are essential to daily life and economic activity. Yet, they are highly exposed to natural hazards. The island is regularly affected by tropical storms, sea level rise, windstorms and tsunamis. These hazards already disrupt transport operations and are expected to intensify over time. For the Government of Niue, developing a clear, evidence-based understanding of how these risks affect the transport network (not just now but into the future) is a critical planning challenge.
What we did
- The Asian Development Bank funded a technical study to assess the impact of identified natural hazards on Niue’s transport sector. The assessment covered the full network, including roads, the airport and the wharf.
- As a sub-consultant to Haskoning, Future Partners associate James Reeves led the consulting team that delivered the study. James brought 36 years of experience as a transport economist and disaster risk specialist to the project.
- This work built directly on James’ long-standing engagement with Niue. He previously led the development of the National Transport Strategy and Action Plan (2017) and the National Infrastructure Investment Plan (2022), giving him a detailed understanding of Niue’s operating environment, transport challenges and investment priorities.
- The study also drew on James’ experience across more than 20 disaster and climate risk projects worldwide, where he has led the development of climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies and investment proposals.
- Given the number of relevant programmes already underway in Niue, a key priority was ensuring that the study aligned with existing policies and future government planning. Early stages of the work focused on building a detailed understanding of these programmes, supported by extensive stakeholder consultation across government and the transport sector.
Outcomes
Outcomes for Niue The study provides the Government of Niue with a well-researched, integrated assessment of natural hazard risks and their impacts on the transport network, including how these impacts are likely to evolve over time. Key deliverables include a comprehensive transport sector assessment that identifies critical inter-dependencies, weaknesses and opportunities across the system. Importantly, the assessment also serves as a communication tool, helping explain Niue’s transport challenges and risk profile to residents and potential development partners. The multi-hazard risk assessment analyses current and future natural hazards, identifies critical elements of Niue’s transport system, proposes and prioritises potential mitigation measures, and sets out a robust adaptation pathway to inform future investment decisions. Together, these outputs give the Government a practical, evidence-based foundation for long-term transport planning and investment.
Additional benefits Significant capacity-building support was delivered as part of the study. This included introducing key concepts such as adaptation pathways, which is a planning approach familiar in some parts of the Pacific, but entirely new to many Niuean stakeholders. A series of dedicated sessions helped build understanding of these concepts and provided decision-makers with opportunities to actively shape the assessment and its outcomes. The transport sector assessment also offered an original, locally grounded description of how Niue’s transport network supports everyday life on the island. This gives the Government a valuable tool for discussions with development partners and strengthens future processes for identifying and prioritising investment.
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